Bias Confirmation
- Status
-
Neutral Δms=1
The nightly verdict on this print. Option trades in the 15 minutes after the print are compared with the print price: Confirmed when they moved the way the print-time bias predicted, Opposite when they moved against it, Neutral when the price stayed within ±0.5%, Unconfirmed when no usable ticks were found.
- Outcome
-
Neutral
Confirmed: the option ticks after the print agreed with the expected bias. Reversed: they moved against it. Neutral: no directional move. Unconfirmed: no usable ticks. The same indicator is appended to the print's line on the whale feed.
Neutral: expected Bearish, option price after the print stayed within ±0.5%.
- Expected
-
Bearish
The directional bias implied at print time: the trade price versus the bid/ask says whether the print was bought or sold, and the contract type (call or put) turns that into Bullish or Bearish.
- Observed
-
Neutral
Direction of the option trades in the window after the print: their average price versus the print price reads Up above +0.5%, Down below −0.5%, otherwise Flat. Up on a call or Down on a put is Bullish, the reverse is Bearish, and Flat is Neutral. This per-tick direction sets the verdict.
- Underlying Context
-
Bullish
Prior-session close-to-close move of the underlying, read as Bullish above +0.5%, Bearish below −0.5%, otherwise Neutral. Context only — the verdict comes from option ticks after the print.
(prior session; does not set the verdict)
- Confirmation Date
- 2026-10-12
Evidence
- Print
- Traded at $43.40 against a $42.80 bid / $46.10 ask → read as Lean Short.
- Expected
- Lean Short CALL print → Bearish expected.
- Option ticks
- 1 option trade in the 15 min after the print (O:MPC261120C00430000), first tick 1 ms from the print. Average price $43.40 vs print $43.40 (0.00%) → option Flat → Neutral.
- Underlying
- Prior session 2026-10-12 closed +0.83% → Bullish (context only; does not set the verdict).