Bias Confirmation
- Status
-
Unconfirmed
The nightly verdict on this print. Option trades in the 15 minutes after the print are compared with the print price: Confirmed when they moved the way the print-time bias predicted, Opposite when they moved against it, Neutral when the price stayed within ±0.5%, Unconfirmed when no usable ticks were found.
- Outcome
-
Unconfirmed
Confirmed: the option ticks after the print agreed with the expected bias. Reversed: they moved against it. Neutral: no directional move. Unconfirmed: no usable ticks. The same indicator is appended to the print's line on the whale feed.
Unconfirmed: no usable option ticks within the window after the print.
- Expected
-
Bullish
The directional bias implied at print time: the trade price versus the bid/ask says whether the print was bought or sold, and the contract type (call or put) turns that into Bullish or Bearish.
- Observed
-
No usable option ticks
- Underlying Context
-
Neutral
Prior-session close-to-close move of the underlying, read as Bullish above +0.5%, Bearish below −0.5%, otherwise Neutral. Context only — the verdict comes from option ticks after the print.
(prior session; does not set the verdict)
- Confirmation Date
- 2026-10-01
Evidence
- Print
- Traded at $48.58 against a $48.96 bid / $49.20 ask → read as Short.
- Expected
- Short PUT print → Bullish expected.
- Option ticks
- No option trade within 1 s of the print was found in the window, so nothing could be observed.
- Underlying
- Prior session 2026-10-01 closed +0.18% → Neutral (context only; does not set the verdict).