Bias Confirmation
- Status
-
Unconfirmed
The nightly verdict on this print. Option trades in the 15 minutes after the print are compared with the print price: Confirmed when they moved the way the print-time bias predicted, Opposite when they moved against it, Neutral when the price stayed within ±0.5%, Unconfirmed when no usable ticks were found.
- Outcome
-
Unconfirmed
Confirmed: the option ticks after the print agreed with the expected bias. Reversed: they moved against it. Neutral: no directional move. Unconfirmed: no usable ticks. The same indicator is appended to the print's line on the whale feed.
Unconfirmed: no usable option ticks within the window after the print.
- Expected
-
—
- Observed
-
Bullish
Direction of the option trades in the window after the print: their average price versus the print price reads Up above +0.5%, Down below −0.5%, otherwise Flat. Up on a call or Down on a put is Bullish, the reverse is Bearish, and Flat is Neutral. This per-tick direction sets the verdict.
- Underlying Context
-
Neutral
Prior-session close-to-close move of the underlying, read as Bullish above +0.5%, Bearish below −0.5%, otherwise Neutral. Context only — the verdict comes from option ticks after the print.
(prior session; does not set the verdict)
- Confirmation Date
- 2026-09-16
Evidence
- Print
- Traded at $3.94 against a $3.92 bid / $3.96 ask → read as Unknown.
- Expected
- Unknown PUT print → no expected bias (side or contract type unknown).
- Option ticks
- 22 option trades in the 15 min after the print (O:SPY260930P00735000), matched the print to the millisecond. Average price $3.65 vs print $3.94 (-7.48%) → option Down → Bullish.
- Underlying
- Prior session 2026-09-16 closed -0.44% → Neutral (context only; does not set the verdict).